Scientists Pioneer Method to Predict Environmental Collapse

At the University of Southampton, scientist may have devised a technique used to predict when an ecosystem is likely to collapse. They are currently testing their theory out in Lake Erhai, China.

The theory is based off of a mathematical formula which is now being applied to real world situations. It may also have the potential to predict crises in agriculture, fisheries and even social systems. The mathematical model helps prove a theory that ecosystems fluctuate dramatically between healthy and unhealthy states right before they collapse.

Due to pollution, Lake Erhai, a lake in the Yunnan province of China, has undergone an environmental collapse. The research team collected fossilized algae from sediment at the bottom of the lake and charted the variations and levels between them over a 125-year period. The results of the sample data showed that the alge had grown consistently until up to 30 years before the collapse of the ecosystem. During these 30 years there were dramatic changes in the types and concentrations of algae present in the water.

Dr. Rong Wang, the researcher who led the study said that: "Dramatic swings can be seen in other data, suggesting large external impacts on the lake over a long time period -- for example, pollution from fertilisers, sewage from fields and changes in water levels -- caused the system to switch back and forth rapidly between alternate states. Eventually, the lake's ecosystem could no longer cope or recover -- losing resilience and reaching what is called a 'tipping point' and collapsing altogether."

I believe this is very interesting and may be reflected in man-made systems as well such as the stock market etc. This may help us predict ecological and agricultural crises in the future as well and help us prevent them from happening.