Scientists Pioneer Method to Predict Environmental Collapse

At the University of Southampton, scientist may have devised a technique used to predict when an ecosystem is likely to collapse. They are currently testing their theory out in Lake Erhai, China.

The theory is based off of a mathematical formula which is now being applied to real world situations. It may also have the potential to predict crises in agriculture, fisheries and even social systems. The mathematical model helps prove a theory that ecosystems fluctuate dramatically between healthy and unhealthy states right before they collapse.

Due to pollution, Lake Erhai, a lake in the Yunnan province of China, has undergone an environmental collapse. The research team collected fossilized algae from sediment at the bottom of the lake and charted the variations and levels between them over a 125-year period. The results of the sample data showed that the alge had grown consistently until up to 30 years before the collapse of the ecosystem. During these 30 years there were dramatic changes in the types and concentrations of algae present in the water.

Dr. Rong Wang, the researcher who led the study said that: "Dramatic swings can be seen in other data, suggesting large external impacts on the lake over a long time period -- for example, pollution from fertilisers, sewage from fields and changes in water levels -- caused the system to switch back and forth rapidly between alternate states. Eventually, the lake's ecosystem could no longer cope or recover -- losing resilience and reaching what is called a 'tipping point' and collapsing altogether."

I believe this is very interesting and may be reflected in man-made systems as well such as the stock market etc. This may help us predict ecological and agricultural crises in the future as well and help us prevent them from happening.

Our Drugs Make Fish Flounder

Name of Article: Our Drugs Make Fish Flounder
By: Richard A. Lovett
Published on: Scientific American

You may not think about this often but the medicine we use often ends in waterways and then affects several species. An example of such a fluoxetine (found in Prozac) which reaches waterways through urine as sewage-treatment plants are unable to remove it. When it does reach waters it affects the species of fathead minnows greatly. In fact, it the male fathead minnows are so affected that they start ignoring the females, consequently halting the reproduction process.

Meanwhile, another research indicated that 17-β-estradiol (a chemical found in birth control pills) affects the ability of fathead minnows larvae to escape predators and slows down their reflexes.

Effects such as those put the species in danger. While they do not face immediate extinction, a steady decline is inevitable.

Street lights 'changing ecology on the ground'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18158529

Even though we have used street lights for years, and years now, and we got completely used to them, only now have researchers found that they mights be having a negative impact on the environment. Insects are an important part of the food chain, since many species of birds feed on them. Now, it is found that they might be affected by street lamps and lights. Even though researchers have counted the population of various bugs for a few years now, none of them have researched their behavior- especially at night. It is found, after these studies, that most of the bugs, both during the day and at night, are near the lights. This is ruining their nocturnal behavior, and not allowing the bugs to act a certain way during the day, and at night. Overall, this artificial lighting might be ruining the life cycles of many species of animals, which we might not even be aware of. There is no alternative way for now, but maybe not making the street lights as strong and bright as they are at night- this could maybe help solve, or at least reduce the problem.

Boat Race Fuels Ecology Argument

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/south_west/7444456.stm

The Round Britain Power Boat Race is raising a huge debate within the country. Marine Charity called The Sea does not support this event, because they believe that the fast-moving boat, and the oil from their motors can damage all of the wildlife n the coast- especially dolphins, which are close to becoming endangered species. The areas that the dolphins live in are very sensitive, and any unknown object coould do potential harm. Since this is a large event which uses up to £300m yearly, many tourists are expected to be there, which will surely leave a negative impact on the wildlife of the marine society. There are many porpoises, fish, and other species of marine inhabitants that The Sea is afraid will be in danger because of this race. Even though the organizers of this race say that they have kept ecology in mind, and that the bots will be spread out at least a few meters, and that they will watch where they will go exactly, The Sea is still unsure of the fact that this is a good idea. But, with all of the technology we created, can any animal be completely safe?

Christine Dell'Amore
National Geographic News
November 21, 2012
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/11/121121-mount-doom-volcano-new-zealand-science-eruption/

This article is about Mount Tongariro in New Zealand which is on North Island. This volcano erupted on November 21st for five minutes and through clouds of ash 2.5 miles up into the atmosphere. The volcano is 6,490 feet tall and had previously erupted in August, which was the first eruption since 1987. There is also predictions that a similar eruptions will take place in the next few weeks although the activity on the mountain has stopped for the moment. Much like Mount  Eyjafjallajökull, the Icelandic volcano that erupted in 2010, air travel has become difficult. Obviously not on the same scale as the eruption of  Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which crippled air travel throughout all of Europe. But air travel on New Zealand's North Island has been stopped. The reason for the cancellation of flights is that in volcanic dust there is microscopic pieces of glass and when they enter a turbine engine they can become hot enough to melt. When they melt they can create significant damage within the engine and sometimes cause it to stall. On top of that the visibility of pilots can be reduced to zero when they fly through the ash and it can also damage the windows of the plane. Much like sandstorms can damage the windshield of a car. One interesting part of this volcano is that it neighbors the mountain depicted as Mount Doom in the Lord of the Rings Trilogy. I think that this is not a global environmental issue because the volcano that erupted is not large enough to affect a significant part of the planet like Mount  Eyjafjallajökull did in 2010. However if a full scale eruption was to happen the impact on New Zealand would be terrible. Especially with the affect it would have on the beautiful landscape from the North Island that is featured in the Lord of the Rings Trilogy. 

Title  Superstorm Sandy Is "What Global Warming Looks Like"

Author News Editor

Date October 30th 2012

This article is about the recent hurricane that affected the East Coast of the United States and how some claim that it is tied to climate change. The article begins with a description of the storms impact, including the fact that the death toll is at 50 with a predicted rise once search and rescue teams continue their work throughout the city. It then begins to describe how one group of scientists believes that the storm was caused by climate change. Their evidence being that with climate change the currents of the ocean are being affected meaning that the hot and cold air collisions that cause hurricanes are becoming more and more extreme. Also that hurricanes will begin to effect unlikely places more often, such as New York and the East Coast of the United States. Also part of the article is political. It talks about the amount of the money spent on the 2012 election and how that money could be better spent on the environment. Then the article talks about the opinion of Dan Kottlowski, an expert senior meteorologist with Accuweather. He disagrees with the idea that this storm was more damaging because of global warming. His explanation is that every 40 years the Atlantic Ocean goes through a warming cycle which causes storms to hit the East Coast like Sandy did this year. I think that it is vitally important to be sure that this storm was caused by global warming. If indeed it was this would be an incredibly effective way to show people what will happen if we do not stop climate change. For the vast majority of people climate change hasn't begun to fully change their surroundings, they can still question whether or not it is fact or fiction and procrastinate more and more with the work that has to be done.

Is it time for Geoengineering?

"The Arctic 'Death Spiral'"
by Peter Wadhams (Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge)
Scientific American Magazine

Global warming is plaguing the arctic and actions must be taken soon to prevent the cataclysmic environmental damage that will effect the entire world. The thickness of the ice in the arctic has decreased by about 43% between 1976 and 1999, as water levels have gradually risen. According to Cambridge University Ocean Physics Professor, Peter Wadhams, by 2015, the "summer melting will outstrip the accumulation of new ice in winter and the entire ice cover will collapse. He also claims that the weakening ozone layer will lead to lower rates of solar radiation reflection, which explains the planet's rising temperature. It is also predicted that the change in climate will melt the arctic permafrost, releasing mass amounts of methane, further contributing to global warming. A recent Russian study shows that the seabeds are in fact rising in methane content. This will lead to what experts are calling an environmental 'death spiral' that will greatly damage our planet. Wadhams then proposes that we use geoengineering techniques to combat climate change, before it is too late. Basically, geoengineering is when environmentalists modify features of the environment to benefit it. Wadhams proposes that they make the clouds whiter in order to block the sun, releasing balloons full of sulfates, and painting roofs and pavement white. He claims that "we can no longer afford the luxury of talking about reducing CO2 emissions... we need action now."

Methods of Geoengineering

I strongly agree with the ideas proposed in this article, since we desperately need to take action against global warming soon, since the arctic damage is building up, and we have no way to control it. Also, the methane buildup and potential for release could prove disastrous  since methane is more harmful to the atmosphere than CO2. However, Geoengineering an extremely controversial method of environmental preservation, which has gotten a lot of attention lately after the Haida Salmon Restoration Corp. tried to release large quantities of iron into the ocean to mimic a volcanic explosion in order to help raise the population of salmon (more on this story here: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=fertilizing-ocean-with-iron-to-save-salmon-and-earn-money). I think Geoengineering has a lot of potential for helping solve environmental issues, while utilizing our technological advances. However, I believe that extensive research and laboratory simulation should be conducted before actually carrying out the actions. These different methods of modifying the environment to counteract the pollution shows promise for solving issues temporarily, while we find ways to cut back on our carbon emissions and pollution. Today, geoengineering is commonly used, but on a larger scale, it could greatly improve the environment, especially at the earth's poles where the ice is melting rapidly. I also think regulation should be heavily enforced, so that no unauthorized projects, the the sea iron fertilzation don't happen. Overall, I believe that geoengineering has a lot of potential for solving many of our climate issues and should be heavily researched, but also, heavily regulated.