Urban Planning: City Dynamics Yield to Computer Modeling

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130911125313.htm

September 11, 2013

Population growth presents a fast-approaching dilemma in terms of urban planning. As the population increases, it’s getting more and more difficult for cities to accommodate for an ever-growing population. Things such as water use, energy consumption and transportation among many other essential factors are growing in demand, and how governments tackle this issue is still somewhat of a mystery.

A*STAR’s institute of High Performance Computing, based in Singapore, have devised a computer modeling program to analyze different land-uses of cities. Currently they have analyzed 8 major North American cities as well as Singapore. The software identifies land use patterns based on high-resolution satellite images, as well as statistical information about the city. It then compares and contrasts the acquired data from each city and indentifies present patterns.

Christopher Monterola stated that “"Understanding the underlying simplicity in the growth of cities will allow us to model the emergence of city dynamics more accurately and, more importantly, learn to shape a city's growth based on our desired outcomes." This data will in turn help as understand how best to accommodate for the growing population.

The project identified land-use of each city by categorizing different sectors of each city into either business, residential, or industrial zones. The computer model then analyzed the spatial entropy, how clustered or dispersed an area is, and the index of dissimilarity, how divided the different sectors are from one another. These parameters identify patterns present in different areas of different cities and helps assume the most ideal solutions to population growth. The index of dissimilarity helps us understand the use of transportation and energy consumption. Based on this data the team was able to accurately estimate many factors of each city, such as the use of public transport at any given time. 

The project aims to add more and more information to the model, eventually creating a mathematically accurate model of a city. By manipulating certain variables they will then be able to see how efficient and sustainable a city is, helping governments plan cities in the most effective of ways. "We will add more details, including schools, churches and so on, with the aim of capturing the day-to-day routines of people in a city."