Baby Gap
How to
Boost Birthrates and Avoid Demographic Decline
By Steven
Philip Kramer
(Professor of Grand
Strategy at the National Defense University’s Industrial College of the Armed
Forces)
Foreign
Affairs, May/June 2012
This article focuses on the decrease and sustainability of
population growth in economically developed countries and policies that those countries
are implementing to increase their fertility rate. Keep in mind that this essay
is opinionated even thou it contains mostly facts. This article starts with
clearly stating the dangers of low fertility rates causing lower birthrates
with leads to each generation being smaller than the last one and with life
expectancy reaching record highs it will lead to an increase in dependency
ratio. Mentioning the age distribution will look like a upside down pyramid,
with more elderly people depending on the young. All of that will lead to
unpleasant policies like “cutting benefits, raising the retirement age, or
hiking taxes”. Steven Kramer believes that “Low birthrates threaten not only
the viability of the developed world’s welfare states but also developed
countries’ very survival.” Many
countries are close to falling in what demographers call “the low fertility
trap” what Steven Kramer describes as “a vicious cycle whereby fewer and fewer
women have fewer and fewer children, leading to an accelerating spiral of
depopulation.” Some countries like Austria and Germany may have already fallen
in to the trap. A solution to that problem might be mass immigration to meet their
economies’ labor needs, but immigration on such a scale is unacceptable. By
looking at history it is proven that the government can increase or stabilize
its birthrates by implementing the right pronatalist policies, such as “available
high-quality and affordable child care, offering families financial support,
and supporting mothers who pursue careers.” The article goes on in a section
titled “MAKING MOTHERHOOD WORK” that looks at the successful examples of France
and Sweden that have increasing birthrates. Making motherhood work looks at how
France and Sweden implemented policies to deal with the change in women’s
role in society and economy, Seven mentions Gunnar Myrdal and his book that was
published in 1934 saying “If Sweden was to boost its low birthrates, women had
to be able to both raise children and have careers- a revolutionary idea at the
time.” France and Sweden fully support families and gives women the opportunity
to peruse carriers thru social support. For example “The Swedish model provides
new parents with over one tear of paid leave based on their salaries” Sweden
offer’s public preschool, and allow women return to their job after a maternity
leave. In France they provide more financial incentives and provide a free
preschool. The French and Swedish systems are supposed to make it easier for
parents to balance work and family. The Second part of the article is titled
“GONE BABIES GONE” and focuses on Japan, Italy and their failure to increase
their fertility rates. Italy for example has a problem where its “welfare state
was already stretched to capacity” when the problem of low birthrate was
identified. Italy also has the Catholic church supporting the stay at home
motherhood, and because of the economic crisis younger people have harder time
finding jobs and stay in their parents’ house till they are 30 years old.
Therefore thy have fewer or no children and start families later in their
lives. Similar issues are happening in Japan, where women have to choose
between career or family and therefore postpone or never have a family and if
they do they have fewer children. And the laws like “the 1994 Angel Plan, the
1995 Child Care and Family Care Leave Act, and the 1999 New Angel Plan” that
are meant to help are often unenforced. The third section of the article is titled
“DEMOGRAPHICS AND DESTINY”. Steven Kramer explains that there is not jet a population crisis, because we are still not beginning to feel it's effects and therefore politicians
have no interest in to fixing the low birth rates. Some even think
that lower birth rates might be good for the environment but Steven Kramer believes
that “That they would admittedly do, but environmental degradation is a lesser
threat than depopulation.” Other believing that the government should not
regulate such a privet matter or that the problem will fix it self. For Courtiers
to increase their birth rates they need to implant population policies and for those
population policies to be successful they need finical support, the same way Sweden
and France give 4% of their GDP to supporting families, and they need to be implemented
in time as a long term investment, because “when it comes to population
policies, there is no such thing as short term success.” Another important factor
is Gender equality, immigration regulation, and acceptance of non-traditional family
structures. And as a last warning from Steven Kramer “Time matters. If they (Nations
with low birth rates) wait too long and get caught in the low fertility trap,
they could find themselves in an uncharted era of depopulation that will be
eerily different from anything before. And escaping that scenario will be
difficult, if not impossible.”